Wolves vs Fulham: Last Maths Lesson

§ 01

The form guide: two seasons in their final acts.

Wolves were the first team relegated this season, going down on 20 April. They have since lost to all nineteen opponents in the Premier League — only the second team in the competition's history to do so. Fulham, beaten 0-1 at home by Bournemouth last Saturday, will need favours from elsewhere to keep any European thread alive.

Wolves Last 5 PL: W0 D1 L4

Win Draw Loss

Eighteen points. Twenty-six defeats. Vitor Pereira inherited a team that had won twice by November and never really pulled them off the bottom. The 1-1 draw at home to Sunderland on 2 May was a small flicker of pride — Pereira talked afterwards about playing for the badge — but the trip to Brighton ended 3-0 and the season has the look of one waiting to end. Even so, Molineux at the death is not a place anyone enjoys visiting; they have nothing left to protect, and the away ground records of relegated sides in their final two games are usually a notch better than the season averages suggest.

Brighton 3-0 WolvesLA

Wolves 1-1 SunderlandDH

Wolves 0-1 TottenhamLH

Leeds 3-0 WolvesLA

West Ham 4-0 WolvesLA

Fulham Last 5 PL: W1 D1 L3

Win Draw Loss

A grim run-in keeps getting grimmer. Rayan's 64th-minute strike at the Cottage last Saturday — low and through Leno from the edge of the area — was the moment Europe slipped out of Fulham's hands, and even the post King smashed late on with his rebound effort feels almost worse for how close it came. Three losses in five, one win in five. The injuries to Iwobi and Sessegnon stripped out the directness that made the front line tick from January through to March, and Silva has not quite found a fix that holds up against the better teams. The good news, such as it is: Wolves are not the better teams.

Fulham 0-1 BournemouthLH

Arsenal 3-0 FulhamLA

Fulham 1-0 Aston VillaWH

Brentford 0-0 FulhamDA

Liverpool 2-0 FulhamLA

§ 03

By the numbers: two clubs going opposite ways round a corner.

Wolves have scored twenty-six goals in thirty-six matches. Fulham have nearly doubled that. The defensive numbers are even further apart. But Molineux on a closing-day Sunday in front of a crowd saying goodbye to the Premier League is not a place where season averages always hold.

Goals scored (36 games)

Wolves

Fulham

        0.72/game1.22/game
      

Goals conceded (36 games)

Wolves

Fulham

        2.19/game1.39/game
      

Clean sheets (36 games)

Wolves

Fulham

        Worst in leagueTwo in last six
      

Wolves top scorers

5 Tolu Arokodare

4 Rodrigo Gomes

3 Hwang Hee-chan

Fulham top scorers

10 Harry Wilson

9 Raul Jimenez

4 Alex Iwobi

Fulham at Molineux · GW37

The case for the away end

3-0

The Cottage win in November: Sessegnon, Wilson and an Agbadou red card

2.19

Wolves' goals conceded per game — by some distance the worst in the league

19/19

Premier League opponents Wolves have already lost to this season — a top-flight first since Sheffield United '23-24

§ 05

The squads: Silva picks the bones.

Andersen is suspended after his straight red at the Cottage last weekend, which leaves Silva picking between Issa Diop and Cuenca to start alongside Bassey — the call of the week. Iwobi and Sessegnon stay out with hamstring issues, but Tete is fit again at right-back and Berge has shaken off the bug that kept him out of the Bournemouth match. Jiménez was on the same illness all week and is rated a doubt to start; Muniz is in line if he doesn't make it. Wolves are without Sá, Johnstone and González, with Krejčí a doubt after a neck issue.

Wolves 3-4-3

Predicted XI

Bentley

Mosquera S. Bueno Toti

Doyle André J. Gomes H. Bueno

Arias Hwang R. Gomes

Arokodare

José Sá Ankle · Out

Sam Johnstone Shoulder · Out

Enso González Knee · Out

Ladislav Krejčí Neck · Doubt

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Predicted XI

Leno

Tete Diop Bassey Robinson

Reed Lukic

Wilson Smith Rowe Chukwueze

Jiménez

Joachim Andersen Red card · Suspended

Alex Iwobi Hamstring · Out

Ryan Sessegnon Hamstring · Out

Kevin Leg · Out

Raúl Jiménez Illness · Doubt

§ 06

Four battles that decide it.

Pereira's 3-4-3 stays. So does the way Wolves stretch the wide channels with Doyle and Hugo Bueno pushed high. Silva has the better individuals across the pitch; whether Fulham translate that into chances is, as it has been most weeks, about the ten and what happens in the half-spaces in front of the Wolves back three.

The new nine vs a rebuilt back two

Arokodare

Wolves · ST

Bassey + Diop / Cuenca

Fulham · CB

Tolu Arokodare arrived in January as the centre-forward Wolves needed when Strand Larsen left for Crystal Palace. Big, awkward, surprisingly clean on the half-turn for a man his size. He has five league goals since arriving and is the obvious focal point. With Andersen suspended after his straight red at the Cottage, Silva picks between Issa Diop's reading and Cuenca's spring as the senior partner alongside Bassey — Bassey's recovery pace covers behind whoever starts. The duel to win is the first contact at Arokodare's chest, and whoever is wearing four for Fulham has to win it cleanly more often than not.

The engine vs the playmaker

João Gomes

Wolves · CM

Wilson

Fulham · RAM

João Gomes is one of the few Wolves performers whose stock has actually risen this season — a midfielder who covers the entire pitch and whose recovery work has hidden some of the back line's weaker moments. With Iwobi missing again, Wilson does Fulham's creative heavy lifting almost on his own. Ten league goals; just as importantly, the player who pulls them forward in transition. If Wilson finds room between Doyle and Gomes on the right, Fulham have a way of attacking the Wolves back three. If he doesn't, Silva is back to recycling possession against a low block.

The wing-back vs the ten

H. Bueno

Wolves · LWB

Smith Rowe

Fulham · CAM

Hugo Bueno is willing forward but young, and the cover from Toti depends on Wolves' back three staying tight. Smith Rowe is at his most useful drifting into the channel Bueno vacates as he pushes up — that pocket between the Wolves left wing-back and the left centre-back is exactly the kind of space he made a career on at Arsenal. If Smith Rowe gets two or three turns in that pocket, Fulham score. If Bueno gets the better of him, the away side will spend ninety minutes putting balls into a packed box.

The counter vs the overlap

Doyle

Wolves · RWB

Robinson

Fulham · LB

Doyle is Pereira's right-side wing-back, a willing runner who keeps the side narrow but who can be turned on the outside by a good first touch. Robinson had one of his quieter games of the season at the Cottage last weekend and Silva will want him back to himself here. He does not always go, but when he does and he and Chukwueze get the angles right, Fulham create their best chances. With Wolves' season effectively over, this is a flank Pereira may concede in counter-attacking moments — which suits Fulham, until it doesn't.

§ 07

Your predictions.

How does this one end?

Six points left, seventh on the calculator. Your call at Molineux.

Cast your vote above

Score predictor

What's the scoreline at full time?

Wolves

Fulham

Win, hope, and check the other scores.

Fulham should win this. Wolves are relegated, defensively the leakiest team in the division, and have lost to every side they have played. None of which means an away day at Molineux is a free three points — relegated sides on the closing run sometimes find a freedom the table no longer demands. Silva needs the win, then he needs Brighton, Brentford and Chelsea to all go wrong. Get the first part right and the rest of the afternoon belongs to other people.

Wolves

Fulham

The form guide: two seasons in their final acts.

The Europe board: seventh is still on the calculator.

By the numbers: two clubs going opposite ways round a corner.

Head to head: five recent meetings, a fair share each.

The squads: Silva picks the bones.

Four battles that decide it.

Your predictions.

Win, hope, and check the other scores.